The global cooling sector is showing impressive growth: since 2010, overall demand for HVAC equipment has increased by 245%. The market has split into 2 segments—high-value commercial and mass-market residential. According to the latest BSRIA studies of the global air conditioner and heat pump market, covering 18 key air conditioning markets and 15 heat pump markets, the main industry drivers have been technology improvements, tighter regulatory requirements, and the rapid development of data center cooling systems.
In the commercial segment, average prices for chillers and air handling units rose by 3.6% and 4.5%, respectively. In the residential sector, by contrast, the average cost of ductless split systems fell due to intense competition: the 10 leading suppliers control more than 85% of global sales in this category. A major boost to the market is coming from the data center industry, where AI development is stimulating demand for liquid cooling systems and accelerating chiller sales, in particular oil-free centrifugal models, which in countries such as Indonesia, Mexico, Turkey, the UAE, and the US account for more than half of the market.
Building owners and investors are increasingly assessing not only upfront capital expenditure, but also lifetime energy efficiency and the carbon footprint of cooling systems. This is driving an active shift to inverter solutions: by 2029, the share of inverter split systems in India will reach 100%, with notable growth also seen in Brazil and Saudi Arabia. At the same time, legislative pressure is increasing to phase out low-efficiency air conditioners and high-GWP refrigerants, making low-GWP refrigerant solutions and natural refrigerants the primary choice for new installations and retrofits.
🌍 Key developments in 2025:
- The global heat pump market began to recover.
- Reversible monoblock split systems showed sales volume growth of 3.3%.
According to BSRIA Research Manager Aline Breslauer, the past year brought market uncertainty and an increase in M&A activity; however, demand for cooling technologies remains high. She noted that companies’ further success will depend less on the technologies themselves than on the ability to adapt to changing economic and geopolitical conditions.